← 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
Water AlliesTier 2
at 20250316 貓腳印-桃園店 HVN REGIONALS
decks
2
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
9-5-3
overall winrate
61.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.6%
avg ELO +2.6 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1217
· median 1217
· range 1068–1366
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1211
Q3 1394
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.9 |
| Water Genbu | 11.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.5% | -8.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.4 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Tamer | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Neos | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
